Gold at US $6,300 in 2026: J.P. Morgan
- 2 days ago
- 3 min read
Gold has moved to the center of the global financial conversation. JP Morgan recently raised its forecast for the price of the yellow metal to US$6,300 per ounce by the end of 2026, supported by strong structural demand from central banks and investors, even in a highly volatile environment.
Beyond short-term movements, the institution believes that gold’s price advance into 2026 reflects a profound transformation in how governments and investors protect and diversify their wealth.
Recent Volatility, Solid Foundations
In recent weeks, gold and silver experienced price corrections following rapid rallies that pushed them to technically stretched levels. Part of this adjustment was linked to a strengthening U.S. dollar, a factor that typically pressures the prices of metals denominated in that currency.
For JP Morgan, these movements do not alter the broader outlook. The bank maintains that the long-term trend remains intact, supported by fundamentations that go beyond short-term conditions and continue to underpin gold’s strategic value for: i) Central Banks, and ii) Investors. These two groups alone accounted for more than 60% of global gold demand in 2025, directly influencing its price.
Central Banks: The Key Support
The main driver behind the upward trend in gold prices is the official sector’s demand. During the fourth quarter of 2025, central banks purchased nearly 230 tons of gold, bringing total gold purchases for 2025 to approximately 863 tons — even with prices above US$4,000 per ounce.
Central banks: Gold Purchases 1950 - 2025 (In tons)
Looking ahead to 2026, JP Morgan estimates that gold purchases by central banks will remain around 800 tons, reflecting an ongoing reserve diversification process. This behavior reinforces gold’s role as a monetary asset in an environment marked by geopolitical tensions, fiscal imbalances, and growing distrust in the dollar-based financial system.
Investors: Confidence in Gold
In addition to official demand, renewed investor interest has emerged. The bank highlights the increase in holdings of gold-backed ETFs, along with solid demand for physical bars and coins.
Gold ETF Holdings by Region (2000 – 2025)
(In Tons)
Source: World Gold Council
This renewed interest reflects the perception of gold as a comprehensive hedge against macroeconomic, financial, and geopolitical risks. Amid high debt levels, persistent deficits, and rising global uncertainty, the bank’s outlook suggests that gold occupies a central place within asset diversification strategies.
According to JP Morgan analysts, the strength of gold demand has exceeded previous expectations and justifies the new US $6,300 per ounce target by the end of 2026.
Although they acknowledge the speed of the rally, analysts dismiss the idea that the market is nearing unsustainable levels. Even at higher prices, gold demand remains well above the historical thresholds required to sustain a tight market.
Silver: A More Cautious View
JP Morgan’s stance is more cautious regarding silver. After its meteoric surge in January 2026 and subsequent correction at month-end, the bank warns that, unlike gold, silver does not benefit from central banks as structural buyers during periods of weakness.
Even so, the bank estimates that silver prices could establish a new average floor between US$75 and US$80 per ounce, while retaining much of the gains accumulated during its recent outperformance relative to gold.
Gold: A Long-Term Strategic Asset
JP Morgan’s revision reinforces a narrative that continues to gain traction over time: gold is no longer merely a tactical safe haven, but a key diversification pillar in an increasingly fragmented and uncertain global landscape.
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