3 Reasons Behind Gold’s Fast Growth in 2025

From January 1st, 2025, to April 30th, 2025, gold’s price climbed more than 30%, driven by a series of global economic and political factors. Find out what's behind this accelerated rise.

2025: A Year of Records

2025 began with gold trading at around US$2,650 per ounce, breaking the US$3,000 per ounce barrier for the first time in March,  reaching US$3,500 per ounce mark in April. This dizzying appreciation in the price of gold has been one of the most notable in the last decade, positioning gold as one of the best-performing assets in 2024/2025 to date, attracting the attention and interest of investors.

Three Factors Driving the Gold Rally in 2025

1. Geopolitical and Commercial Tensions

The relationships between the United States and its main business partners, especially China have tensed after the imposition of mutual high tariffs, weakening the price of the dollar against other currencies and generating instability in the global financial markets. Investors, seeking protection from possible economic disruptions, have increased their demand for safe-haven assets, gold being the safest in the long term.

2.Interest Rates and Recession Threats

The Federal Reserve has signaled possible interest rate cuts during the second half of 2025. This expectation reduces the attractiveness of fixed income instruments and increases the interest in gold, whose price tends to increase when the performance of debt assets falls. Additionally, the impact of the trade war initiated by President Trump has begun to negatively impact the economic activity in the United States and the confidence of North American consumers.

This combination of factors has increased the probability that the US will fall into recession during 2025, a situation that has historically driven the growth of the gold price.

3. Central Banks Purchases

The Central Banks of countries like China, India and Türkiye have increased their gold holdings in 2025, seeking to diversify their international reserves against a weakened dollar. According to the gold demand trends published by the World Gold Council and the forecast of gold purchases issued by Goldman Sachs, Central Banks buy on average, 80 tons of gold per month, significantly exceeding the promedium prior 2022, from 17 tons of gold per month. 

The accelerated development of this trend which began in recent years, indicates a sustained change in the monetary reserve strategy of countries amidst global macroeconomic uncertainty.

A Historical Look: Has This Happened Before?

Yes, gold has experienced similar cycles in the past: In 2008, after the global financial crisis, and in 2020, during the COVID-19 pandemic, gold also reached all-time highs. The lesson is clear: in times of uncertainty, gold represents security. The interesting thing is that, unlike other periods, in 2025 multiple factors converge simultaneously: persistent inflation, international trade tensions, a recession threat, and a growing demand for the metal from central banks.

Projections for 2025 and 2026

Goldman Sachs estimates that gold could reach US$3,700 per ounce in the last quarter of 2025 and US$4,000 per ounce in the second quarter of 2026, if current tensions persist. For its part, Bank of America has revised upwards its gold forecast in 2025, estimating an average price of US $3,063 per ounce during that year, even reaching US $3,500 per ounce If the demand for investment in gold increases by 10%.

Refuge and Opportunity

In an uncertain environment, gold is not only a shield: it also represents an opportunity to invest with a strategic vision, diversifying the portfolio in search of a higher return with a lower level of risk, as evidenced by the following table. As you can see, over the last 25 years gold has had a solid compound annual growth rate (CAGR) 10.1% in dollars, an attractive return that few low-risk assets could match.

Gold does not promise short-term astronomical returns, like cryptocurrencies or certain technology speculative stocks. Gold, on the other hand, offers something much more valuable to the true investor: Security, protection in difficult times and attractive long-term performance.

Protect your Money

Aktagold's mission is to help people around the world protect their money from the economic and financial instability of their countries of origin by giving them access to saving in physical gold, safely stored in Canada’s most secure vaults, an option that used to be reserved only for the wealthiest ones.

Contact us and learn more about how to protect your wealth by saving in gold.