War in the Middle East: Gold as a Safe Haven
- Apr 15
- 3 min read
Updated: Apr 20
In the financial landscape of 2026, the key principle that “gold is the thermometer of geopolitical uncertainty” has never been more relevant. While traditional assets such as stocks and bonds tend to suffer during the volatility caused by armed conflicts, gold maintains its position as a key pillar of wealth preservation.
Unlike previous crises, the current war tensions resulting from the attack by Israel and the United States against Iran have introduced variables that force investors to reassess their exposure to risk. Below, we analyze why gold is strongly positioned in this context.
Strait of Hormuz: Energy and Geopolitics at Stake
The geographic location of the conflict affects the heart of global energy supply. The Strait of Hormuz, a vital oil transit point controlled by Iran, through which nearly one-fifth of the world’s oil passes, is the epicenter of tension. The main risk factors of a potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz are:
Energy Inflation: Any disruption in this narrow channel drives up oil and natural gas prices. Historically, rising oil prices act as a catalyst for gold: Higher energy costs lead to higher global inflation. In sustained inflationary environments, gold is the most effective natural hedge.
Food Inflation and Scarcity: Between 20% and 30% of global fertilizer trade also passes through the Strait of Hormuz. A prolonged conflict could have devastating consequences for agricultural production in populations that depend on its timely supply.
Multilateral Escalation: The possibility of a confrontation involving additional regional actors and global powers (such as China or Russia), aiming to counterbalance the weight of the United States in the conflict, could cause further volatility and trigger a capital flight from traditional currencies and financial assets into gold.
The Advance of De-Dollarization and Central Banks
War is not only fought on the battlefield, but also on financial balance sheets. Following sanctions imposed in previous conflicts, such as those applied to Russia since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, nations have accelerated the transition toward a less dollar-dependent economy.
Gold has topped Treasuries in global central bank reserves
Source: BofA Global Investment Strategy, BofA Global Research, World Gold Council, IMF, Bloomberg.
Central banks are accumulating gold reserves at a record pace. This dynamic is no coincidence; it reflects a search for sovereignty that no fiat currency can guarantee. Among the nations leading this massive gold-buying trend are:
China: Has significantly increased its gold purchases since 2022, seeking protection against potential sanctions, accelerating its de-dollarization process, and strengthening its currency.
Turkey: Has stood out as one of the most aggressive gold buyers, aiming to support the stability of its currency amid a high-inflation environment.
Poland and the Czech Republic: With an aggressive acceleration in gold purchases since 2023, they are signaling a paradigm shift among European Union central banks.
Volatility and Stabilization
Gold’s trajectory in 2026 has been historic. At the end of January, driven by peak tensions in the Middle East, gold reached an all-time high of $5,589 per ounce. Once the war in the Middle East broke out, gold prices dropped significantly as a result of:
Forced selling by investors needing to cover losses in the equity market,
Profit-taking by speculative holders,
A sharp decline in expectations of interest rate cuts in the United States, which led gold to hit its lowest level since the beginning of the conflict at $4,124 per ounce.
From that low level, gold has experienced a swift recovery, standing as of the publication date of this article (April 15, 2026) around $4,800 per ounce—equivalent to a net gain of 10% since the start of the year. This demonstrates that structural demand for gold continues to outpace available supply.
The Case for Gold as a Safe Haven
The recent geopolitical tensions involving the United States, Israel, and Iran have reminded the world of the fragility of the global financial system. Having moved past the technical correction of the first quarter, gold reaffirms itself as a key strategic asset. In this context, gold is not merely a speculative bet, but an essential diversification tool for protecting wealth in a world undergoing constant reordering
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