Goldman Sachs: Gold Could Reach US $5,000 by 2026
- ccancino3
- 7 days ago
- 2 min read
As of September 2025, gold has delivered extraordinary gains, rising more than 40% in U.S. dollar terms since the start of the year. On September 16, it reached a new all-time high above US $3,700 per ounce.
Against this backdrop, Goldman Sachs published a widely discussed report earlier this month. The bank argued that if the independence of the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) comes under threat, gold prices could “rise substantially” and hit US $5,000 per ounce as early as 2026.
A modest shift of just 1% of private capital currently invested in U.S. Treasuries into gold could, according to the report, drive its price to US $5,000 per ounce. Goldman’s projection rests on several pillars: the dollar’s recent fragility, a surge in Central Bank gold purchases, and a deliberate move by monetary authorities to reduce their reliance on the U.S. currency.
Mike McGlone, senior strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, echoed this outlook, noting that gold remains on track to test US $4,000 per ounce before the end of 2025—despite potential short-term pullbacks—underscoring its cyclical resilience.
Four Drivers Behind Gold’s 2025 Rally
Record Central Bank purchases: Central Banks continue to boost their gold reserves in order to reduce their exposure to rapidly depreciating currencies.
Expectations of Fed rate cuts: Lower Treasury yields enhance gold’s appeal as a non-yielding, but protective asset.
Political uncertainty in the U.S.: President Trump has sought greater control over the Fed, including moves to remove Governor Lisa Cook.
Global warnings: ECB President Christine Lagarde recently warned that a Fed stripped of independence represents a “serious danger” to the world economy.
US Dollar Weakness Adds Fuel
A key force behind gold’s strength is the mounting pressure on the U.S. dollar. Over the past few years, China and other non-US-aligned countries have gradually reduced their holdings of Treasuries.
Deutsche Bank has cautioned that America’s fiscal sustainability is at risk, warning that the retreat of foreign investors from U.S. sovereign debt could prolong dollar weakness. This dynamic strengthens gold’s role as a more reliable store of value.
The Ultimate Safe Haven
Goldman Sachs has labeled gold its “highest-conviction long” in the commodities sector—a strong endorsement for investors seeking diversification away from traditional assets.
If confidence in Treasuries and the Fed continues to erode, ripple effects could include higher inflation, falling stock and bond valuations, and an accelerated decline of the dollar as the world’s reserve currency.
Gold, by contrast, offers intrinsic value, independent of governments or institutions. With a track record spanning more than 3,000 years, it remains the unrivaled safe-haven asset in times of uncertainty.
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